Taking stock

Sunday 30 June 2024

Frist draft.

After the fall of the Berlin Wall, I was optimistic that we, as humanity, would begin a new era in which brute force would no longer be a threat to world peace. People all over the world would realize that it was better to trade than to wage war. Issues, such as the too rapid economic reform of Russia, could be resolved peacefully. But, of course, cracks in that optimism appeared rather quickly.

I do not remember all the events that were incompatible with this optimism. Randomly, I can try to recall a few from memory.

For example, I remember the assassination of Yitzhak Rabin after the Oslo Accords, and the failure of the 2000 Camp David Summit. In my view, what was decisive for the failure of Camp David was that Yasser Arafat could not accept that he could never win and had to be content with less territory in the West Bank. Instead, he supported the Second Intifada, as a result of which conservative forces in Israel came to power who wanted to occupy even more of the West Bank. Peace in Israel thus seemed impossible. Still, Israel could have been be a special case.

Another limitation of my optimism was the evident ability of despots to seize power in a country and frustrate democratic developments. The principle of sovereignty and, more generally, the powerlessness of the United Nations gave despots the space to do as they pleased.

The major shock, however, came in the aftermath of 9/11. The attack itself was simply large-scale terrorism, but the conservative government in the U.S. seized upon 9/11 to attack and occupy Afghanistan and Iraq. The attack on Iraq was particularly troubling, as it seemed to be a classic case of abuse of power, complete with classic lies about the reasons for the war. I still vividly remember the speech Colin Powell gave at the UN, in which he told lies and waved a fake vial of anthrax.

It has since become clear that democracy is under siege everywhere in the world. The most populous country in the world, China, is not democratic to begin with, and it uses classic nationalist sentiments to maintain unity, with the potential for war with countries portrayed as enemies.

Many countries follow the same pattern, sometimes with support from China or Russia, which in the meantime had also destroyed its nascent democracy. Civil wars around the world (especially in Africa) seem unstoppable. Russia attacked several of its neighboring countries and occupied border areas where Russian speakers lived. Finally, Russia occupied and annexed Crimea and started a further (covert) war with Ukraine by occupying the eastern part of that country. This culminated in 2022 in an attempt to occupy the entire country.

That war, in the middle of Europe, continues and seems insoluble. Russia is supported by China and all the countries that believe the West has enriched itself too much at the expense of the rest of the world, or that simply have no problem with the idea that one country can be attacked and occupied by another more powerful country.

Where is my optimism? Pretty much gone. Here in Europe, we can try to arm ourselves against Russia and thereby maintain peace within our own borders. However, we are frustrated in this effort by domestic anti-democratic forces (often supported by Russia). It doesn’t help that democracy in the U.S. seems to be going down the drain as well.

The pernicious thing about anti-democratic movements is that they have no principled respect for people. Anti-democrats grant fewer or no rights at all to certain groups or categories of people. Once anti-democrats come to power, everyone is at risk, even those who were foolish enough to vote for them. And that is the situation now. An unsafe situation even here in Europe, and certainly no hope for a peaceful future for humanity as a whole.